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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.